Gartner Forecasts Traditional Search Volume Will Drop 25 Percent Before End of 2026

Gartner has forecast that traditional search engine query volume will decline by 25 percent before the end of 2026, with a further projection of more than 50 percent organic traffic decline to websites by 2028 as AI search scales. The forecast aligns with current market share data: ChatGPT now processes 2.5 billion prompts per day, has 900 million weekly active users, and holds approximately 17 percent of all global digital query volume — the first time in two decades that a single competitor has taken double-digit share from Google's traditional near-monopoly on web search. AI search referral traffic reached 0.9 percent of all site visits in March 2026, a five-fold increase year-over-year.

Key highlights

Gartner's longer-range projection puts organic website traffic decline at more than 50 percent by 2028. The forecast is driven by the expected continued growth of AI search platforms that resolve queries on the results page rather than directing users to source websites. The 25 percent by end-of-2026 figure reflects the rate of AI search platform adoption observed through mid-2026 and an assumed continuation of current growth trajectories through the remainder of the year.

ChatGPT reached 900 million weekly active users and 2.5 billion daily prompts as of mid-2026. The approximately 17 percent global digital query share figure represents a structural milestone: Google held above 90 percent of global search market share consistently from 2009 through 2023. The shift to double-digit competitive query volume is occurring faster than the previous major search market shift — the transition from desktop to mobile search — took place.

The zero-click search rate has escalated alongside AI platform adoption. More than 58.5 percent of Google searches now end without a click to any website. For queries that trigger AI-generated answers specifically, some analyses place the no-click rate above 80 percent. The category most affected is non-branded informational content, where traffic declines of 15 to 30 percent have been observed across content sites. Transactional queries and branded navigational searches have seen smaller declines in click-through rates.

The 50 percent traffic decline projection for 2028 is Gartner's long-range estimate and is widely cited as a directional indicator rather than a precise forecast. HubSpot's actual experience — a 70 to 80 percent decline in organic blog traffic over one year — suggests the trajectory may be steeper than Gartner's forecast for publishers whose content is heavily concentrated in informational query categories.